Compare the after-tax retirement value of Roth vs Traditional contributions based on your tax rate now vs in retirement — and see the break-even. ✓ After-tax compare
After-tax value • Break-even
The whole decision comes down to one thing: your tax rate now vs in retirement. A Traditional 401(k)/IRA deducts contributions today and taxes withdrawals later. A Roth is funded with after-tax dollars and grows tax-free. Comparing the same pre-tax contribution, the after-tax result is simply: Traditional = future value × (1 − retirement rate); Roth = future value × (1 − today's rate).
So Roth wins if your tax rate will be higher in retirement (or you're young/low-bracket now); Traditional wins if your rate will be lower later. When the rates are equal, they tie. Many people split contributions to hedge. Estimate only; not tax advice.